But, that said, the current CW goes something like this: the 2012 election is going to be about the US economy. And specifically, about jobs.
If that's indeed the case, then things are looking up for President Obama.
Here's the one chart that makes the case:
Of course, plenty of discouraged people across the country have given up looking for work. And the US unemployment rate of 8.3 percent, while at a three-year low, is still historically and painfully high.
But if this trend continues, then conventional wisdom might end up being right. And President Obama will be tough to beat, no matter who the Republicans eventually throw up to challenge him.