Thursday, November 8, 2012

Nate Silver's Blog Got Election 100 Percent Correct

Posted By on Thu, Nov 8, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Two of the biggest winners on Election Night were President Barack Obama and Nate Silver.

Silver runs the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog, which Citydesk pointed out on the weekend before the election has been the most accurate prognosticator of results. He has seen an 850 percent increase in Amazon sales of his book The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don't. It currently ranks second on Amazon's bestseller list, after Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Third Wheel.

Silver's blog analyzes polling results from all different sources to estimate how many of the 538 electoral votes each presidential candidate will win.

Going into the election, Silver estimated Obama had more than a 90 percent chance of winning the Electoral College vote and predicted essentially all 50 states correctly.

In the last weeks of the election, many Republican politicians and campaign officials complained that Silver's predictions were inflated and unfairly favorable to Obama.

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