Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Gallup Admits to Severe Errors in 2012 Polling

Posted By on Wed, Jun 5, 2013 at 9:25 AM

More than a few political insiders concluded that Gallup, one of the world's oldest and most quoted polling organizations, did severe damage to its reputation in 2012, going as far as forecasting that Mitt Romney would win the presidential election.

That's why Gallup announced June 4 that it would adjust some of its survey methods. Gallup officials admitted to a number of factors that that badly underestimated support for President Barack Obama.

The final Gallup poll, just before the November 6, 2012 election, showed Romney with a 1-point lead, which was at odds with almost every other nationwide political survey.

An internal review reviewed that Gallup had misidentified likely voters, didn't appropriately weigh its sample to include a larger berth of race and ethnicity, and limited too many interviews to to regions where Romney was strong.

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